Many of you attended or have listened to the synopsis I gave on Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (Crown Books, 2016) at the First Friday Book Synopsis.
Here is a follow-up with some of the questions that participants are forecasting from the Good Judgment Open Group:
Newly Published Questions
- As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?
- Before 18 October 2016, will Iran’s Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?
- Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?
Most Forecasted Questions
- Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
- Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?
- Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?