First Friday Book Synopsis

"…like CliffNotes on steroids…"

Tomorrow Is Arriving Faster By The Minute – What Is Disappearing? Trends & Projections

It’s Saturday.  The weekend is upon us, and I read wherever the links take me.  And I think back over the week, think about what I heard, read, learned…  So – here is a Saturday edition of Randy’s “let’s just think about some stuff…”

1.  The office is disappearing. That’s the conclusion of Seth Godin, and it was so “big,” and yet, once you read it, you knew he was certainly correct, that it even got picked up by Andrew Sullivan (The Office, RIP:  Seth Godin gives the last rites).  Sullivan writes about a lot of different topics all the time, but seldom about business issues — so this is notable.

Here’s what Godin wrote (click on the link to understand his #7 comment):

If we were starting this whole office thing today, it’s inconceivable we’d pay the rent/time/commuting cost to get what we get. I think in ten years the TV show ‘the Office’ will be seen as a quaint antique.
When you need to have a meeting, have a meeting. When you need to collaborate, collaborate. The rest of the time, do the work, wherever you like.
The gain in speed, productivity and happiness is massive. What’s missing is #7… someplace to go. Once someone figures that part out, the office is dead.

2.  The desktop computer is disappearing. That’s the conclusion of Farhod Manjoo, Slate.com’s technology writer.  (I’m a big fan of his writing – I understand it!)

Manjoo wrote:

In the last decade, portable computers have erased many of the advantages that desktops once claimed while desktops have been unable to overcome their one glaring deficiency—by definition, these machines are chained to your desk.
Amazingly, by 2015, desktops will constitute just 18 percent of the consumer PC market…
In just three years’ time, tablets are projected to outsell desktops, becoming the second-largest PC category after laptops. This sounds crazy until you consider that Apple alone is already selling 1 million tablets a month.

He’s right, of course.  I now read as many articles on my iPhone as I do on my desktop.  I suspect I will have an iPad before too long.

But, let me describe how I work.  I wonder if any others out there work the same way.  I do fine with my portable devices for “input.”  I read my e-mail, read articles, find information.  I read both the Godin post and the Manjoo post on my iPhone.  But for “output” – blog posts, e-mails, preparing handouts to go along with my presentations, I want/need my desktop.  (I’m a Mac guy – I’m now on about my 5th Apple over a long period of time; and I love my iMac.  I’ve never warmed to the keyboard/mouse in a laptop, and practically refuse to work on one when I “have to.”’  I’ve never owned one).

Recently, I heard Ron Holifield, CEO of Strategic Government Resources, describe two different kinds of workers.  Those who work “from the shoulders down,” and those who work “from the shoulders up.”  This is a really clear, graphic image.  Increasingly, those who work “from the shoulders up,” can work anywhere there is a connection.  Which is just about anywhere.  They won’t need an office – and they won’t need a desktop.  They will just need to be connected.

As for where all of your stuff will be – it will be in the cloud.  So it will be available anywhere, anytime…  (I’ve got every one of my book handouts, and a whole lot more, available to me on my iPhone and/or from any connected computer anywhere, through my MobileMe account.  Yes, I could do the same for free on Google Docs, but MobileMe does a whole lot more, and it is so easy to use with my iMac!  It is worth the cost).

Captain Kirk at work

And just for fun, let me remind you of a few of the fantasy communication devices we all remember.  Dick Tracy had a wristwatch that allowed for live visual face-to-face communication (you know – where you could talk and see each other at the same time).  The new iPhone will now actually have capability.  Captain Kirk had this hand-held device that he could flip open and say “Beam me up, Scotty.” By the time Captain Picard arrived, he just tapped a spot on his uniform.  No more clumsy, too large, inconvenient flip-open communication device.

Dick Tracy and his magic wrist watch

The communication devices/reading devices/working devices are getting stronger, faster, smaller, less obtrusive, easier to use, seemingly by the week.  Tomorrow is arriving faster by the minute.

Saturday, June 19, 2010 Posted by | Randy's blog entries | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

   

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